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Pacific: Decline & Fall of World Religions, 1900-2025
by Justin D. Long
In this issue we conclude our series by examining the rise and fall of world religions in the Pacific area. This region of the world is defined by the United Nations to include Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, and several other smaller islands in the south Pacific area. The population in this area is growing at a rate of 1.36% per annum, from 22 million in 1990 to 25 million in 2000 and 33 million in 2025.
In this area, Christians are the majority, and have been since 1900. At the turn of the century three-quarters of the population professed to be part of Christianity, fairly evenly split between Anglicans, Catholics and Protestants with Anglicans having the most. By 1990 the situation had changed, with Catholics in the lead, Protestants second, and Anglicans third. During the same period of time, classical Evangelicals, Pentecostals and Great Commission Christians all gained members at varying rates.
Unfortunately, the growth rate of Christianity and most of its traditions and blocs is not presently enough to maintain its share of the region’s population. Though Christianity as a whole adds more than 300,000 members annually, 66,000 through conversion, it will slip to 83% of the population by 2000 and to 82% by 2025. The only traditions growing faster than the population rate are Non-white indigenous (at 1.99%), Marginals (2.86%) and Orthodox (2.49%). Evangelicals are growing slightly faster, while Great Commission Christians and Pentecostals are both outracing the population growth rate by healthy margins. Pentecostals will reach 2.8 million by 2000 and 4.4 million by 2025.
There are only two other religions that have made a significant mark in the area, and both have seen tremendous reversals of fortune.
Ethnoreligionists were the largest non-Christian religious bloc in 1900, with 21% of the population. Virtually anyone who wasn’t a Christian belonged to an ethnic religion. By 1925, this level had fallen to about 7% of the total population, and continued to decline dramatically. Today, ethnic religions comprise less than 1% of the total population of the Pacific. However, it is interesting to note that between 1900 and 2000 ethnic religions have been maintaining their position and even seeing gains. Presently, they are growing at better than 1.5% per year, enough to increase their share of the population—at the expense, ironically, of Christianity.
The other bloc is the non-religious. Only 1% of the Pacific’s population was non-religious at the start of this century. They have continued to make gains, reaching 10% by 1990. At a growth rate of 1.56%, they will maintain and increase their share of the region’s population.
There are several smaller religions in the area which have, for the most part, simply maintained their place throughout the last century: Buddhists, Atheists, Hindus and Muslims each have about 1% of the population in 1990. All are growing just fast enough to maintain their position, but with the exception of Buddhists and Asian new religions, none are making significant inroads through conversion from other faiths.
It is clear that Christianity is a force to be reckoned with in the Pacific area. Yet, with only 28% of Christians in the Pacific considering themselves interested in missions and evangelism, it is plain to see why Christianity is in decline. The Christian church in the Pacific must do more to mobilize its own members to greater evangelistic activity if they wish to reverse the outflow of their members to other faiths.