[ Previous | Home Page | 1996 Index | 1997 Index | 1998 Index | Next ]
North America: Decline & Fall of World Religions, 1900-2025
by Justin D. Long
| Name | 1900 | 1925 | 1950 | 1975 | 2000 | 2025 |
| Christians | 96.6% | 93.2% | 88.7% | 86.8% | 84.9% | 83.3% |
| Nonreligious | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 8.7% | 10.0% |
| Jews | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| Muslims | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% |
| Buddhists | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| Atheists | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Hindus | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Chinese folk-religionists | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Baha'is | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| New-Religionists | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Sikhs | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Ethnoreligionists | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Spiritists | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Shintoists | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Taoists | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jains | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parsees | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
In this issue we continue our series by examining the rise and fall of world religions in North America, defined by the United Nations to include Bermuda, Canada, Greenland, St. Pierre & Miquelon and the United States. This region’s population is growing at an average rate of 0.9%, adding 2.6 million people each year.
Christianity is the largest professed religion in the region, with 241 million members in AD 1990 growing to 262 million by the year 2000. However, its size hides its slow decline. Although Christianity adds 2.2 million members annually through births to Christian households, it also loses 164,700 members through defections to other faiths. Its net growth rate of 0.8%--slightly under the region's population growth rate--means it is losing its share of the total population.
Not all Christian traditions are in decline. Roman Catholics are growing both through births and conversions, thus increasing their share of the population. Independent and Non-white indigenous churches, growing at 1.6% per year, are outstripping the population growth rate at a healthy margin; they are adding nearly half a million members through conversion alone. Marginal churches are growing at 1.7%, adding 94,000 yearly through conversion and the balance through birth. Unfortunately, Protestants are in serious decline, losing 1 member through defection for every 2 gained through births.
There are some bright spots especially among the trans-tradition groupings. Evangelicals (those who are part of mainline traditional Evangelical denominations) are growing at 1.12%, adding 202,000 through conversion and 822,000 through births yearly. Pentecostals are the second-fastest growing bloc in North American Christianity, at 1.3% each year. Great Commission Christians (those interested in mission and evangelism) are growing at 1.06%, adding 123,000 members through conversion each year. Even so, they comprise just 25% of the population--far less than Christianity’s total 85%.
Some might ask how can Great Commission Christians be growing so quickly when Protestants are in decline. The answer can at least be partially found in George Barna's July/August report. In an article entitled "Finding believers in the strangest places," Barna notes that much of the recent growth among the ranks of "born-again Christians" is attributable to Catholic and marginal groups. For example, some 26% of Mormons say they have made a personal commitment to Jesus Christ, believing that salvation is theirs by virtue of having "confessed their sins and accepted Jesus Christ as their personal Savior." The answer for this puzzle from Barna's research: it seems that in this case, post-modernism actually works in favor of Great Commission Christians. Most Americans, he reports, have little theological understanding. "Few Mormons, Catholics or Protestants are able to articulate the basic doctrines of their church. An individual Christian in any of these groups may hold theological views which may be valid, but are contradictory to his church's teachings."
"Mormons are more likely to accept the total accuracy of Scriopture than were typical Catholics, Episcopalians, Lutherans or Presbyterians. They were also more likely to hold an orthodox biblical view of God, to have a sense of personal responsibility to evangelize, and to believe that Satan is real, and to reject the idea that Jesus sinned while on earth... By contrast less than half of all Episcopalians, Methodists, Presbyterians and Lutherans were found to be 'absolutely committed' to the Christian faith..." (Barna Report, reviewed in Christian Thoughts & Trends, Feb. 1998).
But why are the numbers of Great Commission Christians so low? 25% out of 85% is not a very large number. Part of this, suggests the head of the Assemblies of God Home Mission (Intercultural Ministries) in a recent sermon in Richmond, Va., is due to our "policy of protection." "We spend hundreds of millions of dollars on Christian programming, Christian broadcasting, Christian radio... all of which is directed at Christians. We spend very little on Christian outreach. We have a policy of protection... of preserving what we have." In so doing, we forget that we have to reach out to increase.
The effort can be compared to a farmer who owns one hundred acres and plants wheat on them all. Then, he pours 70% of his water and effort into 30 acres. The wheat grows up, some of it strong and healthy, some of it rotted from all the water it receives. Meanwhile, the wind comes up and some of the water sprays over into 10 of the surrounding acres. Here, too, some of the wheat grows up strong and healthy. The rest of the wheat dies out from lack of water. So it is with our efforts. There are some converts from non-Christians who "happen to be flipping channels and run across _x_ television program..." or who "happen to be walking by the church and hear the music and wander in..." but by and large only Christians benefit from our efforts.
And so it is that non-Christians are being "watered" by other faiths, and those non-Christian religions are doing extremely well. Smaller religious blocs have a higher growth rate: 800,000 Baha’is (2.46%), 156,000 Spiritists (1.81%), 850,000 Chinese folk-religionists (1.11%), 740,000 Asian New Religions (2.2%), and 520,000 Sikhs (2.66%). At 4%, the 400,000 ethnoreligionists are the fastest growing bloc of religions in North America.
However, it’s the big world religions that are really showing their muscle. Although they only number 0.8% of the total population, 2.4 million Buddhists at 2.75% are growing nearly three times as fast as Christianity, likely reaching 3.2 million by 2025. Likewise, 6 million Jews, though losing member through conversion, are gaining more through births, and will reach 6.6 million members by 2025. Muslims are growing only a bit slower than Jews, and will have roughly the same population by 2025. The 1.2 million Hindus are the second-fastest growing religion in North America, at 3.38%. They will reach 1.8 million members by AD 2025.
Not surprisingly, Christianity’s two biggest competitors are not religious at all. From 1 million in 1900, the nonreligious have grown to 26 million today, and are maintaining a growth rate of 1.1% (mostly through births to nonreligious homes). Even more startling, atheists have grown from 2,000 in 1900 to 1.4 million today, and are maintaining a growth rate of 2%. Neither one of these show any sign of slacking off in the near future.
The fact is, in North America every other religion is gaining converts while Christianity is losing them. Perhaps one of the central reasons is the notable lack of concern of Christian churches for evangelism and mission. Our policy of preservation may not be very much protection at all. It's time to come out from behind those rose-colored stained glass windows, open up the fortresses, and urge Christians to have a balance in their programs--one-third of their effort directed at their own members, one-third directed at their nearby non-Christian neighbors, and one-third directed in mission to the unevangelized in World A.